June Update from David Butcher</h1> <article> <h1>June Update from David Butcher</h1> <p>dbutcher — Fri, 29 May 2009 12:08:00 GMT</p> <p>In a business school like Cranfield we talk to many managers in many places each and every day, and for close to nine months you have all been saying much the same thing, which is that the current economic climate gives new meaning to the expression 'we live in interesting times'. I can therefore be reasonably certain that most of you reading this are faced with significant business problems (probably euphemistically referred to as 'challenges' in your organisation), and of course, that you are all trying to take advantage of the genuine opportunities these 'interesting times' create. <br /> <br />Cost-cutting will almost inevitably be part of your solution, which of course presents you with the paradox of a short term answer at the risk of long term damage to your business. Reductions in your training and development budget and the attendant moratoria on all but 'essential' travel illustrate the dilemma well, and doubtless you will have already recognised this - everybody does. But have you also considered that this may be more than a problem of a failure to invest in your people for the longer term? How much have you thought about whether investing in development now may provide the elusive business solutions you need at this moment? In asking that I'm not suggesting that you should avoid cutting the T&S spend, but instead have in mind the kind of results that can come from selective development for a few well-chosen people. I'm thinking in particular of the special value that comes from attending open enrolment executive programmes - the challenge to think innovatively, to learn about solutions that are already working in different businesses and industries, to discover new levels of energy and leadership drive - the kind of experience which of course we in business schools argue is always important for you, above all now. If you have been contemplating this question, I'd be most interested in your answers, better still to help you to reach them. <br /></p> </article> <article> <h1>Cranfield - A place to grow with space to think</h1> <p>dbutcher — Tue, 18 Nov 2008 16:09:00 GMT</p> <font color="#810081"> <p></font><font color="#810081"><strong>The Cranfield Experience<br />Every journey has milestones, and every one of us has career stages.</strong> </font></p> <p><font color="#810081">Participants on our Open Enrolment Programmes tell us that is what Cranfield means to them. We represent a milestone in their career. We make a difference to them that is not just professional, but personal. They see the world of management and leadership in a new way that makes a lasting difference. </font></p> <p><font color="#810081">Business school provides an environment in which you can think, in which you can share ideas, in which you can grow. When you are part of a Cranfield programme, you are benefiting from the pedigree of one of the world’s leading business schools, it’s ability to relate to you and your business, it’s highly ranked facilities, and from fellow participant who come to us from all business sectors and corners of the world. You will be learning and growing together.</font></p> <p><font color="#810081">At Cranfield we have invested much over many years to understand how managers develop. Our aim must be to encourage, to improve, to inspire. We grow not just your knowledge, but your ability to act on it. </font></p> <p><font color="#810081"><strong>Our Executive Open Programmes</strong> are designed to help you w</font><font color="#810081">hatever industry or country you’re from, whatever stage you’ve reached in your management career, we have an Open Enrolment Programme for you. We have one of the world’s largest portfolios of programmes, and they are of global renown. Indeed, the Financial Times Executive Education Survey 2008 of business schools ranked us number 2 in the UK for Open Programmes. </font></p> <p><font color="#810081">The breadth of the portfolio is matched by its depth: you will find intellectual rigour, and a determination to see that rigour put to practical use. Our world-class reputation in executive education is built on our dedication to improving business performance and to inspiring today’s and tomorrow’s business leaders. </font></p> <p><font color="#810081">We have 50 programmes, each of them designed with success in mind. They range from our flagship General Management Programmes and our highly respected personal development Praxis programmes, through to our expert functional programmes in supply chain and logistics, marketing, human resources, operations management and much more.</font></p> <p><font color="#810081">They are short courses, taking you away from your business only for a short period of time. But they have real impact nonetheless. You’ll find them challenging, innovative, stimulating – and they’re based on our latest management research. Research that has real practical application to you and your business. </font></p> <p><font color="#810081">Cranfield’s Open Enrolment Programmes represent not just a milestone, but a turning-point for our participants. Years beyond, they continue to draw on the benefits.<br /></font><a href="http://www.som.cranfield.ac.uk/som/executive/"></a></p> </article> <article> <h1>The Coming Crisis in Supply Chain Management</h1> <p>mchristopher — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 15:31:00 GMT</p> <p>In a remarkably short space of time the issues of carbon footprints, potential energy shortages and raw material cost increases have risen much higher on the agenda in boardrooms round the world. There is a growing realisation that major discontinuities to established patterns of working may be just around the corner and that 'business as usual' may no longer be possible. </p> <p>There will be many ramifications of these potentially seismic changes but there is one particular challenge which requires our immediate attention - the immient arrival of what some have called 'Peak Oil' and its implications for supply chains.</p> <p><strong>Peak Oil</strong> - the concept of Peak Oil was originated as far back as 1956 by Dr Marion King Hubbert, a geologist at Shell. What he recognised was that all oil production, be it from an individual field, a country or the entire world follows a normal distribution i.e. a bell-shaped curve. All the current indications are that we have reached the top of that curve, or that we shortly will. Even with new discoveries that total amount of oil reserves will still be in decline once the peak has passed.</p> <p><strong>Demand and Supply</strong> - at the moment the world demand for oil is approximately 85 million barrels a day which by chance is about the current daily output of all the working fields. However, whilst output is about to start to decline as Peak Oil is reached; demand continues to grow - particularly fuelled by economic growth in countries such as India and China. The gap between the demand and supply will get larger by the day.</p> <p><strong>Filling the Gap</strong> - some commentators have suggested that the gap between the demand and the supply for oil will be filled by discoveries of new fields or new fuels (e.g. biofuels). However such is the likely deficit that it is estimated that we would need to find new reserves of oil (or create alternative fuels) equivalent to five Saudi Arabias over the next 20 years. Simple economics tells us that the only way the gap will be filled is by the price mechanism. In other words the cost of oil will increase dramatically to reflect the shortfall in supply. US $200.00 a barrel is not that far away and US $300.00 is quite possible before long.</p> <p><strong>Supply Chain are Energy Intensive </strong>- today's supply chains are more energy intensive than before because they are more transport intensive than they used to be. There are a number of reasons for including:</p> <ul> <li> <div>Focussed factories and centralised distribution - as a result of rationalising production and distribution many companies are now having to serve customers at a greater distance</div></li> <li> <div>Global sourcing and offshore manufacturing - the well-established trend to low-cost country sourcing and manufacturing has meant that supply chains are significantly extended and products travel much further</div></li> <li> <div>Just-in-time deliveries - as more customers demand just-in-time deliveries from their suppliers, it is inevitable that shipment sizes reduce whilst deliver frequencies increase.</div></li></ul> <p> <strong>Implications for Supply Chain Strategy</strong> - most supply chains and distribution networks have been designed on the principle of cost minimisation - even though the definition of cost might have been somewhat limited. The problem is that many of the network optimisation exercises that were carried out in the past did not factor in the potential for oil prices to rise to US $ 200.00 a barrel or more. There is an urgent need for supply chain strategists to revisit those calculations and to conduct 'what if' analyses based upon worst case scenarios of transport costs.</p> <p>It is likely that the results of these analyses will cause a radical rethink of the structure of our supply chains; possibly with a return to much more local-for-local manufacturing and sourcing.</p> <p><strong>Reducing the transport-intensity of our supply chains</strong> - apart from a greater proportion of local-for-local sourcing and manufacturing, what other activities might reduce the transport-intensity of our supply chains?</p> <ul> <li> <div>Bigger vehicles/vessels: even though controversial this is one proven way to reduce the transport cost element per unit shipped</div></li> <li> <div>More load consolidation: using 'milk round' collections, cross-docking arrangements and shared transportation</div></li> <li> <div>A review of product and packaging design to enable more product per cubic metre of transportation requirement</div></li> <li> <div>Using sophisticated tools, e.g. intelligent agents, to enable dynamic sourcing, routing and consolidation</div></li> <li> <div>Greater use of postponement strategies to enable standard products to be shipped in bulk for local configuration</div></li> <li> <div>Greater focus on the reduction of port and road congestion, through an integrated infrastructure including the development of post-centric logistics. </div></li></ul> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> <p> </p> </article> <article> <h1>Welcome to my blog</h1> <p>mchristopher — Tue, 12 Aug 2008 10:12:00 GMT</p> <p>There are so many challenges facing supply chain managers today which have significant implications for the wider business as a whole. This is why I thought it might be useful to keep a "blog" which might provide a useful radar screen to alert you to the emerging issues and concerns as I see them. It might also provide a conduit for the exchange of thoughts about how supply chain excellence can be achieved and maintained in these difficult times.</p> <p> </p> <p> </p> </article> </main></body></html>